By Mark Freedman
Every December, we’re flooded with forecasts for the year ahead. Some are provocative, some are forgettable, and many will be wrong. Even so, the act of making predictions has value. It forces us to step back from the day-to-day noise and look closely at the trends shaping the security landscape. If nothing else, the process nudges us a few steps ahead of the present moment, which can help adjust our thinking from reactive to proactive.
As we head into 2026, few of the underlying drivers underpinning current levels of global and domestic instability show signs of easing. If anything, the trends point in the opposite direction. All the more reason to get into a predictive mindset over the holiday break.
When I speak with clients about geopolitical risk, I find it helpful to zoom out and think in terms of epochs of time rather than isolated events. I use 2018 as an informal transition point from the War on Terror to global great power competition between the United States, China, and Russia. In that year, the U.S. National Defense Strategy stated, “Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in U.S. national security.” In the years since, the global system has become increasingly contested and multipolar.
This is the underlying driver that explains why “references to geopolitical risk in Fortune 250 financial disclosures have more than doubled since 2019,” according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation. The White House’s release earlier this month of the new National Security Strategy – and specifically its inclination to challenge long-held orthodoxy in U.S. foreign policy, serves as another data point in favor of assuming continued geopolitical volatility well into 2026 and beyond.
Throughout 2026, corporate security and intelligence teams, especially those with overseas exposure or supply chain dependencies, should expect the operating environment to grow even more complex. The potential flashpoints are well known: South China Sea tensions, Russia’s provocations in Europe, instability in the Middle East, and economic coercion that targets private industry as much as governments. Companies that lack a clear national security and geopolitical strategy will find it increasingly difficult to navigate this environment. And given Beijing’s notional 2027 timeline for capability to launch an invasion of Taiwan, 2026 is likely to be a pivotal year in the U.S.-China relationship.
The turbulence is not limited to the international stage. As I wrote for Liferaft recently, a survey by the Chicago Project on Security and Threats found that, as of September 2025, the number of Americans in both parties who supported the use of force for political purposes with which they agreed had tripled from just a year prior. That trend line is clearly concerning and I see little data to suggest that it will stagnate or reverse in 2026.
In a recent Liferaft LinkedIn Live on “Security Shifts to Watch for in 2026,” in which I participated with Davian Hoffman of Oleander Consulting and others, Davian emphasized the likelihood that threats to executives, borne in part by this environment of heightened political polarization, should be expected to increase in 2026 as well.
Personally, I continue to be optimistic that eventually Americans are going to get sick of and reject the vitriol and the violence on both the far left and far right. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see that happening in a substantive and meaningful way in 2026.
Political volatility – internationally and domestically – are two major contributors to security risk to the modern enterprise. But every business is unique. It is important that security and intelligence professionals take time to go through the process of making their own predictions tailored to their unique business and operating environment.
Plan to set aside a couple hours at the end of December or beginning of January for predictions work. You can use the following guidance to get started:
Gather the right people in your organization and conduct a structured look back at the major trends that shaped your threat landscape in 2025. Ask whether the data suggests these trends are accelerating, slowing, or reversing. You’ll quickly see which assumptions deserve to carry forward into your 2026 planning.
Examine your own prediction and planning process. Do you have the intelligence inputs you need? What tools and technologies are you using to ensure you have insight into global, domestic, political, and criminal threats to your organization? Are they actually informing decision-making? Does your organization have a reliable way to spot emerging risks before they crest into crises?
Your predictions may be completely right or completely wrong. Typically, that’s not the point. The process of making them will serve your organization well as we head into what’s likely to be a bumpy year.